According to data released yesterday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), Swiss watch exports increased greatly in October, jumping 9.3% in value to CFH1.85 billion. Exports were up to 24 of the 30 markets that account for 92% of Switzerland’s global replica watch sales.
“Exports benefited from a very favorable base effect in October,” the FH said in a statement. It made the same point last month, a reminder that 2017 was a hard year for Swiss watch sales: global exports dropped 9.9%. Swiss watch exports have now risen for six consecutive months. The good October numbers suggest that the recovery that began in the second quarter of this year is picking up steam after two years of declines. However, it’s important to put the increases in context. 
Exports are up 2.4% in value compared with the year of 2016 for the 10 months of this year. This year’s top performer is China, the third largest market overall, with exports up 17%. Luxury goods are staging a strong recovery there, as the government eases its five-year anti-corruption crackdown on the practice of gift-giving. Perhaps the best news of 2017 for the Swiss is the recovery in Hong Kong, Switzerland’s top market. Exports there have jumped for five consecutive months and are up 5.4% year to date. These markets have helped increase mechanical watch unit sales by 3% to 5.8 million pieces through October.
That good news is controlled by the fact that six of Switzerland’s top 10 markets remain down year to date (see table). Besides, 2017 total exports year to date are 8.8% below the level of 2016, which was also a down year. Exports to Hong Kong are 24.3% below 2015 levels.
The FH’s July prognosis about the U.S. – “for the time being, there is nothing to indicate the outlook will brighten soon” – has proven painfully accurate. As we’ve noted before, the U.S. market is beset by a stew of problems that have hurt Swiss watch sales here more than in other markets. They include the rise of e-commerce (which Swiss luxury replica watches firms have generally avoided), a consequent slump in brick-and-mortar store traffic, inordinate levels of gray market watches, the increase of smart-watches and a boom in fake vintage watch sales.
However, the big story for the Swiss this year is that global exports are rising steadily after falling steadily for two years. China is back and mechanical watch sales are up. The Swiss will be happy with a 2% boost with two months to go after the way this year started.